Aargh!

My cousin took 35 Cub Scouts to Comerica Park today, and I felt sorry for them as the Detroit Tigers lost a heartbreaking game 3-2 to the Chicago White Sox on a two-run homer in the 9^th inning. I felt sorry for them until I reflected a bit and realized these Cub Scouts need to learn sooner or later that life kicks every one of us in the teeth and they might as well learn it today courtesy of Tigers’ “closer” Jose Valverde and his 6.17 Earned Run Average.

As tempting as it is to write about Cub Scouts and the meaning of life, or the self-inflicted emotional damage that comes from watching Valverde pitch, I want to write a bit of a technical treatise on relief pitching for intense baseball fans like me.  I may have just lost 98% of my audience, but here goes.

It’s easy to carp about Valverde and the rest of the bullpen, but, believe it or not, a lot of teams are a lot worse off than Detroit in this department.  And today’s game balances yesterday’s game, which we won in even more dramatic fashion off the equally shaky White Sox bullpen. 

What intrigues (and irritates) me about today’s game is that we lost because there was a “no-brainer” strategy move available to Detroit manager Jim Leyland that he didn’t consider.  He could have gone to the bullpen and brought in the left-handed Phil Coke to pitch to Adam Dunn, the player who hit the game-winning home run.  But with Dunn up in a spot where he could (and did) win the game with one swing, the Tigers had no one warming up in the bullpen.  Today’s game, like every single game like it, was Valverde’s to win or lose.  Because he’s been designated our “closer,” he’s out there on an island.

Dunn is a big beast of a guy (his nickname is Donkey), who has amazing power.  He also strikes out a ton – for example, he has struck out at least once in 31 straight games.  The most telling thing about Dunn is that he simply does not hit left-handed pitchers.  He has no home runs against left-handers and eight home runs against right-handers.  He hits about .100 against left-handers.  Against right-handers?  Well, we saw it today, when he hit the ball a whopping 422 feet.

Baseball has changed – in my opinion for the worse.  We now have pitchers assigned to innings.  Phil Coke and Octavio Dotel pitch the seventh inning.  Joaquin Benoit pitches the eighth inning.  Jose Valverde pitches the ninth inning.  Because of this regimentation, Valverde had the eye-popping statistic of going 49 for 49 last year in save situations.  There is no more worthless statistic than saves.  A real save is coming in with the tying or winning runs on base and getting guys out, regardless of the inning.  But closers get saves for keeping a lead in the ninth inning, and they almost always start the inning.  The only trouble they have to deal with is of their own making.

In the old days, managers were much more flexible. If a relief pitcher came in and got people out he stayed in the game, regardless of what inning it was.  Up until about the last decade and a half, if a game like today’s game was being played and Joaquin Benoit pitched as effectively as he did today in the eighth inning, he would have stayed in the game.  That’s why you can still get a save for pitching three innings with the lead and closing the game.  It would be interesting to find out when the last time that actually happened -- probably the 1980’s. 

This isn’t the 1980’s.  Most teams are struggling with their bullpens this year, and I think it’s because of the regimented way managers use them.  Everyone thinks they can find a guy who can come in night after night and get three guys out in a row.  Most teams can’t find pitchers who can do that.   

Here’s how today’s ninth inning could have gone.  Leyland could have easily out-maneuvered the White Sox by bringing in Coke and letting him pitch to Dunn.  There is a 90% chance Dunn would make an out.  Imagine Coke did the job.  There would be two outs with Paul Konerko, the Sox best hitter coming up.  I’d intentionally walk him.  Then have Coke pitch to A.J. Pierzynski, another left-hander and see what happens.  I’d say we’d have a better than 80% chance of winning the game and a 15% chance the inning would have ended tied and the game would have been extended.

But there was a zero percent chance that scenario could possibly happen.  The Tigers pay Valverde $9 million to pitch the ninth.  They pay Benoit $5 million to pitch the eighth.  They pay Coke $1 million to pitch the seventh.  I wish they’d choose relievers based on match ups and who’s hot, instead of salaries.